Mathematical modelling of the impact of HIV intervention strategies in Kenya

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dc.contributor.authorOmondi, E. O.
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-26T09:04:59Z
dc.date.available2024-03-26T09:04:59Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionFull - text thesis
dc.description.abstractSince the identification of the first cases of AIDS almost three and half decades ago, HIV/AIDS continues to inflict major public health and socio-economic challenges. Although various intervention strategies have been employed, cases of new infections are still quite high especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the end of 2018, nearly 37.9 million people were infected with HIV globally. In Kenya, approximately 1.6 million people are living with HIV with 25,000 deaths resulting from AIDS-related illness yearly. The rise in the cases of infections obviously poses danger in the efforts to contain HIV pandemic. HIV prevention and intervention measures need to be enhanced in order to achieve an HIV free society. In this work, mathematical models for HIV transmission dynamics with focus on the impacts of testing and counselling, PrEP uptake and ART treatment are formulated and analysed. Vital analyses that include positivity, steady states and their stability conditions for the models are precisely established. Numerical results from fitting the models to real-time surveillance data to show the evolution of populations over time are obtained. Through Pontryagin’s maximum principle, qualitative optimal control measure against HIV is established. Results are indicative of the fact that combination of various control measures lead to reduction in cases of new infections. Our findings show that the introduction of PrEP has a positive effect on the limitation of spread of HIV when the coverage is maintained at 40%. Furthermore, a combination of PrEP uptake, condom use and ART treatment is likely to offer the best control measure against HIV infections. It is thus critical to devote more resources to education on HIV preventive measures and treatment programmes. In summary, control of new cases of HIV infections should take into account PrEP uptake and combination of condom use and ART treatment. However, PrEP program coverage and individual-level adherence is very critical. These results have the potential to help in escalating programs against HIV infections in high risk populations by modifying the implementation of current interventions, or by adding new control measures.
dc.identifier.citationOmondi, E. O. (2020). Mathematical modelling of the impact of HIV intervention strategies in Kenya [Strathmore University]. http://hdl.handle.net/11071/15405
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11071/15405
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherStrathmore University
dc.titleMathematical modelling of the impact of HIV intervention strategies in Kenya
dc.typeThesis
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