Exploring peri-urban land use change from coffee farming to real estate development: a case study of Nyeri, Kenya

Abstract

Trade-offs between ecosystem preservation, poverty alleviation, and urban development are critical considerations in peri-urban areas undergoing a transition from agriculture to urban growth. This study explores the factors driving land-use change from coffee farming to real estate development in Nyeri, Kenya, its socio-economic consequences, and the role of government interventions in ensuring a sustainable balance. The study is anchored on the Theory of Urban Expansion and the Urban Growth Machine Theory, providing a framework to understand the economic and political drivers of land-use transformation. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, utilizing a concurrent triangulation design that combined quantitative surveys with qualitative interviews. A judgmental sample of 377 coffee farmers participated in the quantitative survey, while 25 key informants—including real estate developers, land use planners, land brokers, and community members—were engaged in semi-structured interviews. Data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, and thematic analysis, with NVIVO software applied for qualitative coding. Findings indicate that economic incentives, particularly the higher profitability of real estate compared to coffee farming, are the primary drivers of land-use change. As coffee incomes decline, farmers are increasingly motivated to sell land for real estate ventures. This shift is further influenced by land fertility perceptions, urban expansion pressures, and market demand for housing and commercial spaces. Despite existing government policies aimed at supporting coffee farmers, their impact remains limited due to weak enforcement, inadequate financial incentives, and fragmented policy implementation. The socio-economic consequences of this transition include reduced food security, environmental degradation, loss of agricultural heritage, and weakened community ties. Additionally, haphazard real estate development, poor urban planning, and unregulated land sales have further exacerbated socio-economic disparities and spatial instability in peri-urban Nyeri. The study recommends strengthening zoning regulations, providing targeted financial incentives for coffee farmers, and enhancing participatory urban planning to ensure a sustainable balance between urban growth and agricultural preservation. Furthermore, government policies should focus on research-driven interventions and collaborative stakeholder engagement to mitigate the negative impacts of rapid peri-urban land conversion.