Optimization of soccer substitutions; a proposed decision rule: a case of the Kenyan Premier League

Date
2018
Authors
Odera, Andrew Oduor Lujan
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Strathmore University
Abstract
Managers and coaches make the tactical decisions and substitutions during a football match. Formation rearrangements, positional changes and substitution of players are some of key decisions taken by coaches. An independent Poisson model has been used before to predict the probability of scoring in a match. This study uses the model to determine the effect of a substitute's performance on the goal difference in a match. Substitute's performance is measured by the minutes played, goals scored and yellow cards obtained. A dummy variable measuring the effect of home advantage is also introduced into the model. The paper uses observations of substitutes coming on to the field from 2012-2015 seasons of the KPL. An integrated independent Poisson regression model is used to estimate the optimal effect the substitution has in a match by estimating the parameters using a maximum likelihood function. The paper concludes that an away substitute introduced has a significant effect if introduced in the first, second and last period while there was no significant difference in the third period
Description
A Research project Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Business Science in Financial Economics at Strathmore University
Keywords
Sports, Leisure, Fitness, Premier Legues
Citation