Optimization of soccer substitutions; a proposed decision rule: a case of the Kenyan Premier League

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dc.contributor.authorOdera, Andrew Oduor Lujan
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-02T17:25:11Z
dc.date.available2019-05-02T17:25:11Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.descriptionA Research project Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Business Science in Financial Economics at Strathmore Universityen_US
dc.description.abstractManagers and coaches make the tactical decisions and substitutions during a football match. Formation rearrangements, positional changes and substitution of players are some of key decisions taken by coaches. An independent Poisson model has been used before to predict the probability of scoring in a match. This study uses the model to determine the effect of a substitute's performance on the goal difference in a match. Substitute's performance is measured by the minutes played, goals scored and yellow cards obtained. A dummy variable measuring the effect of home advantage is also introduced into the model. The paper uses observations of substitutes coming on to the field from 2012-2015 seasons of the KPL. An integrated independent Poisson regression model is used to estimate the optimal effect the substitution has in a match by estimating the parameters using a maximum likelihood function. The paper concludes that an away substitute introduced has a significant effect if introduced in the first, second and last period while there was no significant difference in the third perioden_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11071/6459
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherStrathmore Universityen_US
dc.subjectSportsen_US
dc.subjectLeisureen_US
dc.subjectFitnessen_US
dc.subjectPremier Leguesen_US
dc.titleOptimization of soccer substitutions; a proposed decision rule: a case of the Kenyan Premier Leagueen_US
dc.typeUndergraduate projecten_US
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