Impact of anxiety on HIV care continuum: a mathematical modelling study

Abstract

Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/AIDS is a significant global health issue, ranking as the second leading infectious disease worldwide. At the end of 2023, approximately 39.9 million people were living with HIV/AIDs with between 500,000 and 820,000 deaths occurring due to the infection globally. Anxiety, defined as a pervasive sense of fear and nervousness without a specific trigger, is a significant mental health disorder. Mental health conditions are critical stressors that complicate the care for people living with HIV/AIDS. In this study, we employed mathematical compartmental modeling of HIV with the impact of anxiety among clients across the care cascade in Kenya. The effective reproduction number was calculated using the next-generation matrix and results indicate the continuous presence of the disease in the population. The numerical results indicate that severe cases of anxiety increase the number of diagnosed populations in the care continuum with an increase of 47% among the population diagnosed as a contribution of anxiety. The impact of anxiety to treatment records a 25% decrease among population receiving ART treatment as a result of severe anxiety. There is a positive impact of anxiety treatment on virally suppressed population with 19% increase as a result of minimal or no anxiety within the population. The study shows that intensified integration of anxiety care within the HIV/AIDs care continuum has a positive outcome. The results provide significant insights to policymakers on the most effective ways of improving the HIV/AIDs care continuum in Kenya.