A Mathematical model on the effect of cultural practices on HIV transmission dynamics in Western Kenya

Abstract

The HIV epidemic remains one of the most significant global health challenges, with Sub- Saharan Africa, particularly Kenya, facing a substantial burden. The Luo-Nyanza region in Western Kenya, historically a hotspot for HIV infection, consistently reports higher prevalence rates compared to the national average. Moreover, despite the fact that there have been significant progress in the reduction of new HIV infection the counties residing in the Luo-Nyanza region have consistently contributed to a significant number of new infections nationally. It is hypothesized that specific cultural practices, such widow cleansing rituals, wife inheritance and polygamy contribute to the elevated risk of HIV transmission within this community. Thus the study sought to model HIV transmission dynamics in the presence of these predisposing cultural practices. This study developed and utilized a deterministic compartmental model to determine the effects of cultural practices on HIV transmission dynamics in the Luo-Nyanza region of Western Kenya. The effective reproduction number was computed using the next-generation matrix approach, and the system was solved numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number revealed that infection rate and cultural practices had the greatest influence on the model’s outcomes. Numerical simulations further demonstrated that these cultural practices negatively impact HIV transmission dynamics, affecting both the retention to care and overall disease burden, ultimately leading to higher infection rates. The findings show that when such practices are adversely practiced, the infection rate increases by 42% and dropout rates by 65%. These results highlight the urgent need for culturally tailored interventions such as engaging community elders, integrating HIV education into traditional gatherings, promoting safe alternatives to widow cleansing and wife inheritance, and collaborating with cultural leaders to shift harmful norms. As eradicating these traditions entirely may not be feasible, such targeted interventions offer a pragmatic approach to mitigating their impact.