The Impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Kenya

Abstract

This research investigates the impact of climate change on Kenya's tourism sector, analyzing how key variables such as rainfall, temperature, and economic factors influence revenue generation within the industry. The study hypothesizes that climatic variability significantly affects tourism revenue and employs an explanatory research design with time series data spanning 2002–2022. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis reveals that temperature, precipitation, per capita income and exchange rate demonstrates a significant influence on the tourism sector. . Descriptive statistics indicate high variability in precipitation and exchange rates, reflecting broader economic and climatic instability. Despite these challenges, the tourism sector contributes significantly to Kenya's GDP, averaging KES 12 billion annually. The findings emphasize the sector's vulnerability to climatic shifts and underscore the need for adaptive strategies, such as sustainable water management, coastal preservation, and reforestation initiatives. The study also highlights the importance of stakeholder collaboration, policy interventions, and international partnerships to enhance resilience. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to sustain Kenya's tourism industry amidst evolving climate dynamics.