A Distributed computing prototype for climate change impact simulation: case of Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing the world in the 21st century, and Nairobi is no exception. Climate change in Nairobi impacts climate-sensitive variables, including unpredictable rainfall, rising temperatures, and increased frequencies of extreme temperature and precipitation events, significantly affecting current and future urban infrastructures, public health, transportation systems, and livelihood activities. This project sought to develop a distributed computing environment for detailed climate change modeling and effects assessment in Nairobi, Kenya. The prototype successfully processed climate data at 1km² resolution compared to previous 10-25km² models for Nairobi. Performance testing showed a 14x improvement in simulation speed over traditional systems. The system captured urban heat island effects with 92% accuracy when validated against historical weather station data. Temperature predictions achieved ±0.4°C accuracy with 95% confidence intervals. Stakeholder validation confirmed the system's practical utility with a usability score of 78.3/100. The prototype directly informed three real urban planning scenarios for Nairobi County's climate adaptation strategies. Capacity building and knowledge transfer were in focus through the training modules and workshops for the local stakeholders involved. The approach to development was carried out in cycles with the desire for changes being made based on feedback sought and which priorities there was. The study was done using an integrated approach to the collation of data: Methods of data collection included questionnaires, personal interviews, focus group discussions, and observation. The quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques generated useful information for application in urban planning and policy. It hence improved the knowledge of climate conditions in Nairobi with concrete recommendations for climate change adaptation.

Keywords: Climate change modeling, Distributed computing, Urban planning, Nairobi, High-resolution climate data, Regional climate model, Urban heat island, Data assimilation, Capacity building, Climate adaptation.