Effect of the African continental free trade area on food production in the East African Community

Abstract

Food production remains a pressing challenge in the East African Community (EAC), where recurring climate shocks, production volatility, and cross-border trade inefficiencies continue to constrain food system stability. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a major policy opportunity to address these constraints by promoting tariff liberalization, reducing non-tariff barriers, improving market access, and deepening intra-African trade integration. This study examined the effect of AfCFTA-related trade reforms on food production in the EAC, focusing on four key dimensions: tariff reduction, non-tariff barrier reform, export market access, and intra-African trade intensity. Anchored on New Trade Theory and supported by food production theory, the study adopted a positivist research philosophy and a longitudinal correlational research design. Secondary panel data covering a census of the seven EAC countries from 2016 to 2025 was analyzed to assess how these AfCFTA variables influence food production, measured using the Food Production Index. Data analysis involved descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and panel regression modelling to quantify the relationship between AfCFTA-driven trade reforms and food production outcomes. Using panel data from seven EAC countries over the period 2016–2025, the study applied a random effects regression model. The results indicated that the model was statistically significant, with approximately 35.35% of variations in food production explained by the selected variables. The findings revealed that tariff reduction, non-tariff barrier reduction, and market access had statistically significant effects on food production, while intra-African trade intensity had no statistically significant effect. The study concludes that AfCFTA trade reforms play a significant role in influencing food production in the EAC, particularly through improved trade facilitation and expanded market access. However, the impact of regional trade intensity remains limited, suggesting that trade integration alone is insufficient to drive food production without addressing underlying structural constraints. The study recommends strengthening the implementation of AfCFTA provisions related to tariff reduction, non-tariff barrier efficiency, and market access, while emphasizing the need for improved coordination, infrastructure development, and institutional capacity to enhance the effectiveness of regional trade integration on food production.

Keywords: Tariff Reduction, Non-Tariff Barriers, Market Access, Inter-African Trade Intensity, Food Production, AfCFTA.