The Effect of external debt on food security in the East African Community

Abstract

This study explores how external debt influences food security in the East African Community (EAC) using data from six member countries between 2012 and 2022. Anchored in the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) framework, the research investigates whether rising debt burdens undermine food security by reducing government resources available for agricultural investments and social programs. The analysis employs a pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) model with robust standard errors to address data variability concerns. Findings reveal a significant negative relationship between external debt and food security, indicating that increasing debt levels strain national budgets and hinder essential investments in agriculture and infrastructure. Interestingly, higher agricultural output does not consistently improve food security, suggesting persistent inefficiencies in resource distribution and post-harvest management. Inflation, while complex, shows a short-term positive effect on food security, whereas population growth and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita exhibit weaker relationships with food security outcomes. The study concludes that prudent debt management, targeted agricultural reforms, and inflation control are critical for improving food security in the region. Policymakers are encouraged to focus on balancing debt sustainability with strategic investments in food systems. Future studies could benefit from exploring longer time horizons and incorporating diverse food security indicators to deepen insights into the intricate relationship between debt and food security.