Agricultural productivity in water-stressed regions: the Indian perspective

Abstract

In recent years, water scarcity has emerged as a critical challenge affecting agricultural productivity in India, particularly in the agriculturally significant Indo-Gangetic Plains. Despite the region's importance to national food security, it remains unclear how factors such as water scarcity, rainfall variability, irrigation practices, and crop diversification influence productivity and what strategies can mitigate these impacts. This study aims to explore the relationship between water scarcity and agricultural productivity, providing evidence-based insights to inform water management and agricultural practices. Using a panel data approach, secondary data from 2010 to 2020 across four states in the Indo- Gangetic Plains were analyzed. The Fixed Effects Model was applied to quantify the effects of key variables on productivity. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, and pre-estimation tests ensured robust model selection, while post-estimation diagnostics validated the findings. The results indicate a significant negative relationship between water scarcity and agricultural productivity. Rainfall levels, irrigation usage, and crop variety positively influence productivity, highlighting the importance of diversified cropping systems and efficient water use. However, challenges such as reliance on groundwater, variability in rainfall patterns, and inadequate infrastructure limit agricultural resilience. The study identifies gaps in current practices and policies, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions in water management and support for farmers to adopt climate-resilient strategies. These findings emphasize the need to improve resource sustainability to ensure long-term agricultural productivity in water-stressed regions.