Mathematical model of global warming effect on Malaria transmission
Date
2019
Authors
Benjamin, Peter
Ogunsola, Amos
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Strathmore University
Abstract
In the recent times malaria is one of the top leading, most predominant and
significant communicable diseases in Kampala, Uganda. The endemic health
hazard is approximately 95 percent in the country. This paper presents a
mathematical model of malaria transmission with the effect of climate change due
to increase in temperature on the increase of conveyor dependent infectious
diseases and probably alter the region transmission potential of malaria. A
deterministic compartmental model is proposed and analyzed. This study presents
both qualitative and quantitative approaches of the model. The numerical
simulation is employed using Excel micro software to and support the qualitative
results. The next generation matrix is employed to determine the common
fundamental reproduction number. The basic reproduction number implies that
the force of malaria transmission in Kampala is high. From the analysis of the
result, the optimal temperature for the transmission of the infectious malaria is
The result also shows that increase in temperature due to climate change give rise
to development of parasite which consequently leads to an increase in the wide
spread of malaria transmission in Kampala. It is also seen from the results that
increase in temperature leads to an increase in the number of infectious human
host and mosquitoes. However as temperatures approaches exposed human and
mosquito populations decline asymptotically to low levels.
Description
Paper presented at the 5th Strathmore International Mathematics Conference (SIMC 2019), 12 - 16 August 2019, Strathmore University, Nairobi, Kenya
Keywords
Deterministic compartmental model, Global warming, Disease-free equilibrium.