Analyzing the current and future potential distributions of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Kenya: a spatial model approach

Abstract

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL), is a vector-borne disease transmitted through sandfly bites and caused by protozoa parasites. The disease is mainly concentrated in poor and marginalized regions around the world. Currently, the global burden of the disease is borne by eastern African countries that share approximately 73% of the global VL cases. Kenya is one of the East African countries that shares in the huge burden of VL. While numerous models have been instrumental in comprehending VL transmission dynamics, persistent knowledge gaps underscore the necessity for more nuanced modeling. This study used a Bayesian spatial model with a specific focus on environmental, weather, population, and treatment data to analyze and predict VL transmission patterns in Turkana, Kenya. The findings from this study determined that age group 6-18 years, age group 0-5 years, age group 31-44 years, age group 19-30 years, sex (male), minimum temperature, land use land cover (LULC), and proximity to healthcare were significant risk factors for VL in Turkana County. This study concludes that there is an interplay of various factors that drive the transmission dynamics of the disease in Turkana County, thus emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to mitigate disease transmission. KEYWORDS: Neglected tropical disease, Bayesian spatial model, Visceral Leishmaniasis, Future hotspots