Impact of political conflict on international trade: a case of electoral violence in Kenya

Abstract

Political conflict has been a major setback for developing economies over the years and the effect on the economy cannot be ignored. International trade which is significant in development is not spared when internal conflict arises. Using a gravity model this paper will focus on the impact of political conflict on International trade in Kenya. The study will use panel data from Kenya and 5 of its main trading partners to measure this relationship empirically. The paper will pay attention to political cycles in Kenya and the variable of interest will be conflict. The value of trade with a trading partner will be the dependent variable in this relationship. Using data from 1992 to 2015 on the GDP, distance between Kenya and a trading partner, a conflict dummy variable and other controls in the gravity model, I will investigate the impact of political conflict on International trade.