Market share measurement for universal mobile telecommunication system operators in Kenya

Abstract

The purpose of this study was determine the market share of key mobile operators of Universal Mobile Telecommunication Systems. Data was collected on identified factors under the voice segment by reviewing documents of the CCK quarterly report published by the CCK. This data was a representation of all the operators present from the year 2009 to 2013. The descriptive statistic ofthe data was carried out by analysis ofstandard deviations, percentages and means. The output of this descriptive statistic showed that the factors indeed have impact on the market share. The data was then fitted in the model and output generated on quarterly basis clearly outlining the percentage effect ofeach factor on individual's operators' market share. This thesis assesses the usefulness of the identified factors for UMTS market share measurement. the inclusive of the factors is defined as a discrete event using logit model. The results obtained from logit model confirm the ability ofTLMT (especially the Minutes ofUse indicator) to estimate the current market share per operator and to anticipate change in one quarter ahead. Results from the out-of-sample GDP growth value are ambiguous. Nevertheless the Call Termination Rates significantly improved original measure based on a model with standard macroeconomic variables and therefore we conclude in favour of its measurement power. The key findings of this study outline the rate at which the market is dynamic using logit model. This model incorporates all factors in the dynamic market and analyzes their effect on the UMTS operators. The result shows the dynamism which is consistent with logit model. Effective factors in this market share dynamism are: Number of subscription, Minutes of Use, Total Local Mobile Traffic, Call Termination Rate and GDP. The result also shows that the logistic model has a better explanatory and predictable power. Therefore, implication of this research is that the quarterly report produced by CCK with regards to the market share controlled by each operator can be revised and factors mentioned in this study can as well be considered during the percentage estimations. The conclusion is, for effective policy making and fair competition amongst the operators in this market, the regulatory board can consider the call termination charges across the networks within the market as a factor influencing and affecting the operators' market share.