Modelling the effectiveness of Covid-19 intervention measures for different demographics

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Strathmore University
The study aims to discuss on how differences in timing and duration of implementation of an intervention measure would affect the results from intervention. It also seeks to find how effectiveness of an intervention would differ if put in different countries with different demographic characteristics. A Susceptible- Infected- Recovered (SIR) model is developed to provide a theoretical framework for the study. The model uses the SIR model but accounts for different demographics and how intervention (school closure) affects the rate at which individuals move form susceptible to infected. Using data of confirmed cases of different countries and the interventions put in place, the study deduces the importance of timing and duration in implementation of an intervention. The study deduces that for an intervention to be greatly effective considerations must be done on the timing and duration of the intervention. Demography of a region should be considered when picking out an intervention.
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Actuarial Science at Strathmore University