• Login
    View Item 
    •   SU+ Home
    • Conferences / Workshops / Seminars +
    • Strathmore International Mathematics Conference
    • SIMC 2019
    • View Item
    •   SU+ Home
    • Conferences / Workshops / Seminars +
    • Strathmore International Mathematics Conference
    • SIMC 2019
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Non-stationary temperature extremes in a changing climate: A Bayesian extreme value analysis

    Thumbnail
    View/Open
    Abstract - SIMC Conference paper, 2019 (89.94Kb)
    Date
    2019-08
    Author
    Chukwudum, Queensley
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    The main focus of this study is to analyze the trends in extreme temperature over the East African region in order to aid a deeper understanding of the inherent risks associated with such extremes. Four countries' (Kenya, Ethiopia, Sudan and Somalia) maximum annual temperature datasets are considered under the stationary and non-stationary assumptions. For the nonstationary form of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, only the location parameter is allowed to vary with time. The Maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation techniques are used. Although both estimation techniques produce similar parameter estimates they differ when it comes to the suggested model (linear or quadratic) to use in modelling the variations through time for each country's maxima. This difference is further, deeply reflected in the forecasted non-stationary return levels for future time horizons. The Bayesian results are adopted as it takes into account prior knowledge.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/11071/10496
    Collections
    • SIMC 2019 [99]

    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2016  DuraSpace
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Theme by 
    Atmire NV
     

     

    Browse

    All of SU+Communities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

    My Account

    Login

    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2016  DuraSpace
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Theme by 
    Atmire NV