SIMC 2019

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http://hdl.handle.net/11071/10448

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Browsing SIMC 2019 by Subject "Basic reproduction number"

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    The HIV-HCV co-infection dynamics in absence of therapy
    (Strathmore University, 2019-08) Mayanja, Edison; Luboobi, Livingstone S.; Kasozi, Juma; Nsubuga, Rebecca
    HIV-HCV co-infection is whereby an individual is infected with both viruses HIV and HCV. Globally, approximately 4 to 5 million people are co-infected with HIV and HCV. HCV infection significantly causes morbidity and mortality among HIV patients. HCV is known to progress faster and cause more liver-related health problems and death among people who are HIV/AIDS positive than those who are negative. Co-infection with HCV complicates the management of HIV/AIDS. Mathematical modeling generally provides an explicit framework by which we can develop and communicate an understanding of transmission dynamics of an infectious disease. In this article, a deterministic model is used in which ordinary differential equations are formulated and analyzed to study the HIV-HCV co-infection dynamics in absence of therapy. The findings reveal that the basic reproduction number for HIV-HCV co infection dynamics is equal to the maximum of single-disease basic reproduction numbers. This implies that the dynamics of the HIV-HCV co-infection will be dominated by the disease with the bigger basic reproduction number
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    A Mathematical model for the dynamics and control of river blindness with asymptomatic infected humans
    (Strathmore University, 2019-08) Tumwiine, Julius
    Onchocerciasis, also known as river blindness, is a disease caused by infection with SBS the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus and is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. It is endemic mostly in remote and rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa. Community-directed annual mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin is the core to eliminate onchocerciasis in all endemic foci in Africa. However, novel and alternative strategies such as vaccination are urgently required to supplement elimination of the disease. In this study, a mathematical model with asymptomatic infected humans is formulated to assess the impact of the different control strategies. Model analysis is performed for the existence and stability of the equilibrium points. The next generation approach is used to calculate the basic reproduction number, Ro. The disease-free equilibrium (DFE) is locally asymptotically stable when Ro < 1. The study findings reveal that a combination of mass treatment s with ivermectin together with vaccination should be applied to eliminate the disease.