Modelling home advantage in soccer without fans
Date
2021
Authors
Owoko, Trevor
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Strathmore University
Abstract
The occmTence of COVID-19 in 2020, midway through the 2019/2020 soccer season brought
rise to the stop and re-emergence of the English Football League. The re-emergence brought
with it a new aspect in that football matches were being played but 'behind closed doors ' in
that no fans were allowed into the venue- because of the COVID-19 safety restrictions, the
absence of fans in the stands to suppOii their teams provided a niche for the study below. The
purpose of this study is to investigate the effect between crowd presence and its relationship
to Home Advantage, comparison between games when fans were present (pre-covid) and
matches without t~1ns (post-covid). The study was guided by research objectives that were
seeking to identify the relationship between crowd presence and home advantage whether if
present and significant towards the outcome of a soccer match and the et!ect of yellow cards
and reel cards on the outcome of a game. Tl1e study population consisted of 6 leagues:
German Bundesliga, the Spanish Ia Liga Santander, the Italian Serie A, the French Ligue, the
English Premier League and the English Championship. The quantitative secondary data was
collected from a published website on shots, yellow cards, red cards and attendance.
Regression analysis is used in data analysis with the application of R-studio . The study
established that football matches played post-COVID period show that fan presence does not
have a significant effect on the outcome of a game as previously thought. Yellow and reel
cards are seen to hold greater impact on the home games without fan presence. Based on the
findings of the study referees need more help and suppOii instead of admonishment in their
decision making. What is deemed to be fairer by the crowd should not be treated with such
great impmiance, to a point where trained referees ' decisions are not supported. There is also
need for further analysis with more data as the study was clone with limited data and hence
there might be room for further learning. The phenomena of home advantage is seen to
continue eluding researchers with its exact causality not yet identified as observed in this
p2per that it is not crowd presence.
Description
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Bachelors of Business Science Financial Economics at Strathmore University