Assessing the determinants of public pension system reform in Kenya

Abstract

In recent years many countries around the world have either undertaken or are seriously considering a pension reform due to various factors. This study was done to tty and establish the key factors Kenya should consider when undertaking a public pension system reform. Data was collected from 2005 to 2013. Time series regression analysis was conducted with the NSSF fund value growth as the dependent variable and the following independent variables: central government debt, pension debt, external debt, gross savings as percentage of GDP, contributions growth rate, age dependency and life expectancy. The regression analysis was used to determine the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. The study found a significant relationship between the 'NSSF fund value growth and central government debt, pension debt, gross savings as percentage of GDP, life expectancy and age dependency ratio, indicating that pension reforms have generally been effected because of economic and demographic factors. The study recommends that policies should be put into place to better manage pension contributions, pension debt and the age dependency ratio, to increase the sustainability and robustness of the NSSF.