BBSA Research Projects (2016)

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Transmission of oil price shocks in the East African stock market
(Strathmore University, 2015-12) Kipchirchir, Edwin
The main objectives of this paper were to find out if shocks from oil prices affect the East Africa's securities market and these shocks are transmitted across the three countries; Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. Stock prices from the three countries were used in coming up with the results. Based on the empirical results, there is a negative and significant transmission of crude oil price shocks to the East African securities market. There is also some transmission of shocks across the three East African countries. The Vector Autoregressive model was used in coming up with theses empirical results. The main advantage of this model is that it is flexibility whereby it is not necessary to specify which variables are exogenous or endogenous since they are all endogenous and the "exogenous" variables are the lags. Key limitation is the determination of the appropriate lag length since each lag can be very sensitive to the results. Further research needs to be done to ascertain whether these shocks are transmitted to other financial markets other than the stock market.