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Recent Submissions

  • Item type:Item,
    Impact of anxiety on HIV care continuum: a mathematical modelling study
    (Strathmore University, 2025) Omondi, K. O.
    Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)/AIDS is a significant global health issue, ranking as the second leading infectious disease worldwide. At the end of 2023, approximately 39.9 million people were living with HIV/AIDs with between 500,000 and 820,000 deaths occurring due to the infection globally. Anxiety, defined as a pervasive sense of fear and nervousness without a specific trigger, is a significant mental health disorder. Mental health conditions are critical stressors that complicate the care for people living with HIV/AIDS. In this study, we employed mathematical compartmental modeling of HIV with the impact of anxiety among clients across the care cascade in Kenya. The effective reproduction number was calculated using the next-generation matrix and results indicate the continuous presence of the disease in the population. The numerical results indicate that severe cases of anxiety increase the number of diagnosed populations in the care continuum with an increase of 47% among the population diagnosed as a contribution of anxiety. The impact of anxiety to treatment records a 25% decrease among population receiving ART treatment as a result of severe anxiety. There is a positive impact of anxiety treatment on virally suppressed population with 19% increase as a result of minimal or no anxiety within the population. The study shows that intensified integration of anxiety care within the HIV/AIDs care continuum has a positive outcome. The results provide significant insights to policymakers on the most effective ways of improving the HIV/AIDs care continuum in Kenya.
  • Item type:Item,
    A Mathematical model on the effect of cultural practices on HIV transmission dynamics in Western Kenya
    (Strathmore University, 2025) Lago, S. S.
    The HIV epidemic remains one of the most significant global health challenges, with Sub- Saharan Africa, particularly Kenya, facing a substantial burden. The Luo-Nyanza region in Western Kenya, historically a hotspot for HIV infection, consistently reports higher prevalence rates compared to the national average. Moreover, despite the fact that there have been significant progress in the reduction of new HIV infection the counties residing in the Luo-Nyanza region have consistently contributed to a significant number of new infections nationally. It is hypothesized that specific cultural practices, such widow cleansing rituals, wife inheritance and polygamy contribute to the elevated risk of HIV transmission within this community. Thus the study sought to model HIV transmission dynamics in the presence of these predisposing cultural practices. This study developed and utilized a deterministic compartmental model to determine the effects of cultural practices on HIV transmission dynamics in the Luo-Nyanza region of Western Kenya. The effective reproduction number was computed using the next-generation matrix approach, and the system was solved numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number revealed that infection rate and cultural practices had the greatest influence on the model’s outcomes. Numerical simulations further demonstrated that these cultural practices negatively impact HIV transmission dynamics, affecting both the retention to care and overall disease burden, ultimately leading to higher infection rates. The findings show that when such practices are adversely practiced, the infection rate increases by 42% and dropout rates by 65%. These results highlight the urgent need for culturally tailored interventions such as engaging community elders, integrating HIV education into traditional gatherings, promoting safe alternatives to widow cleansing and wife inheritance, and collaborating with cultural leaders to shift harmful norms. As eradicating these traditions entirely may not be feasible, such targeted interventions offer a pragmatic approach to mitigating their impact.
  • Item type:Item,
    Stakeholders' perspectives on the effects of the European Union’s Green Deal policy initiatives on horticulture export in Kenya
    (Strathmore University, 2025) M'kaibi, F. K.
    The European Union (EU) started implementing the European Green Deal (EGD) policy initiatives through several strategies in 2020 to ensure that Europe attains climate neutrality by 2050. Farm to Fork (F2F) and Biodiversity strategies are among the EGD initiatives implemented by the EU. Data show that the EU is the largest export destination for Kenyan horticultural produce. Adopting the EGD policy initiatives will not only lead to changes in market conditions but also affect the market readiness and competitiveness of Kenya’s horticultural products. This study examined Stakeholders' Perceptions on the effects of F2F and Biodiversity strategies on horticulture exports in Kenya. It also established the challenges and opportunities of implementing the two strategies. The underpinning philosophy of this inquiry was pragmatism. The study adopted the concurrent mixed-method research design. The target population were technical persons in charge of horticulture exports to the EU and horticulture export stakeholders. The stakeholders were export firms and key informants that comprised government agencies, industry associations, and international organisations. Census, stratified, proportionate and simple random sampling techniques were used to select the sample within the identified inclusion criteria. Data was collected from the horticulture exporters using a questionnaire, and interview guides were used to collect data from the key informants. The study's findings indicate that implementing F2F and Biodiversity initiatives was perceived to affect all value chain activities. The initiatives brought about changes in export market requirements and regulations and promoted the production of safe food and the sustainability of the environment. They also caused a decline in the volume of crops produced and exported and an increase in bureaucracy and red tape. The stakeholders believed that lack of resources and inadequate support, loss of jobs, and decline in production and revenues were the main challenges presented by the two initiatives. Controlling pests due to the reduced usage of plant protection products and getting alternatives to chemical fertiliser were also challenges. The stakeholders felt that some EGD requirements are not implementable in Kenya due to ecological and weather factors and resource constraints. The ecological and weather challenges were frequent attacks by pests, disease, unpredictable hot and dry spells and heavy rains, while resource constraints included funds, technology and skills. The findings, however, indicate that F2F and Biodiversity present stakeholders with opportunities to diversify and expand the market, transition to the production of healthier and safer food and adopt practices that promote environmental protection and sustainability. The study recommends adopting and mainstreaming EGD policies in the horticulture sector to tap into the associated opportunities. It also recommends adopting innovative technologies, consultative engagements, and capacity building for the horticultural stakeholders to improve horticultural exports' market readiness and competitiveness.
  • Item type:Item,
    A Quantitative assessment of the influence of taxes, levies, landed costs, storage and distribution expenses on pump prices in Kenya
    (Strathmore University, 2025) Okadia, F.
    This study provides a quantitative assessment of how taxes and levies, landed costs, and storage and distribution expenses influence petroleum pump prices in Kenya. It aims to inform policy decisions on fuel pricing by offering empirical evidence on the drivers of domestic petroleum prices. Between January 2018 and May 2024, prices for Super Petrol, Diesel, and Kerosene rose by 81%, 86%, and 121%, respectively. These increases have contributed to reduced fuel consumption especially for Kerosene and rising inflation. The study had three objectives to assess the extent to which: i Taxes and levies influence the price of petroleum products. ii Landed costs for refined petroleum products influence their prices. iii Storage and distribution costs influence the price of petroleum products. The research was guided by several economic theories: the economic theory of price control, Pigouvian taxation theory, price theory, the informal approach, and exchange rate theory. A quantitative longitudinal research design, utilizing a time series approach was employed, using secondary data from the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA). The analysis involved Pearson correlation, unit root tests using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) method, co-integration testing, and the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Data analysis was performed in R-Studio and Microsoft Excel. The results showed that the model explained 58.63% of the variability in kerosene prices, 49.82% in diesel prices, and 31.03% in super petrol prices. Taxes and levies had the greatest impact on Super Petrol prices, while landed costs had a stronger influence on kerosene. Storage and distribution costs did not significantly affect diesel prices. The findings revealed that these factors have significant short-term effects, often influencing prices immediately or within one to two periods. However, the absence of long-term co-integration suggests they do not determine long-term trends in petroleum pricing. The study concludes that although taxes, levies, and logistical costs drive short-term price fluctuations, they lack a stable, long-term predictive relationship with fuel prices. These insights are essential for developing targeted, evidence-based fuel pricing policies in Kenya. Keywords: Kenya’s Petroleum Prices, Petroleum Taxes and Levies, International Platts prices, Petroleum Regulation Kenya, EPRA
  • Item type:Item,
    Gender-inclusive climate resilience and community-led adaptation in afforestation initiatives: a case study of the Mau Forest Complex, Kenya
    (Strathmore University, 2025) Mutuku, G. M.
    This study investigated the relationship between gender-inclusive climate resilience and community-led adaptation in afforestation initiatives within Kenya’s Mau Forest Complex. Afforestation and climate resilience are vital for addressing environmental degradation and adapting to climate change. However, gender perspectives in these initiatives remain limited. This research examined the impact of gender inclusivity on adaptation activities, the distinct strategies employed, and the challenges communities face. The study aimed to: (1) Examine how gender inclusiveness influences community-led adaptation in afforestation initiatives at the Mau Forest Complex; (2) Assessed the different community-led adaptation strategies of men and women and their implications for afforestation initiatives; and (3) Identified the challenges hindering effective community-led adaptation to climate resilience among men and women in the Mau Forest Complex. A mixed-method research design was employed for this study. The study focused on community members across Bomet, Kericho, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, and Uasin Gishu counties within the Mau Forest Complex. Quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation, and multiple regression. Qualitative data was thematically analyzed to identify recurring patterns and provide a deeper understanding of gender dynamics in adaptation practices. The findings revealed moderate awareness of the importance of gender inclusivity in climate adaptation efforts. Men and women contribute differently to afforestation: men focus on tree planting and water conservation, while women engage in sustainable agriculture. These complementary roles highlight the value of a gender-balanced approach in enhancing afforestation initiatives. However, significant challenges persist, including financial constraints and limited access to climate information. Additionally, gender-specific barriers such as restricted resource access and decision-making opportunities for women exist. These challenges hinder the effectiveness of adaptation efforts. The study concluded that a multifaceted approach is essential to build resilient, adaptive communities in the Mau Forest Complex. This approach should address financial constraints, improve access to climate information, and promote gender inclusivity. Recommendations include raising awareness of gender inclusivity and fostering collaboration between men’s and women’s adaptation strategies. Also, simplifying access to climate finance and dismantling gender-specific barriers. By addressing these challenges, afforestation initiatives can become more sustainable and effective, contributing to broader climate resilience in the region. Further research is suggested to explore the long-term impacts of gender-sensitive adaptation approaches, and the potential for youth and intergenerational collaboration.