Spatial dynamics of armed conflict in Kenya during the electioneering periods of 1997, 2002, 2007, 2013 and 2017 general elections
Date
2019-08
Authors
Kimani, Peter
Athiany, Henry
Mugo, Caroline
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Strathmore University
Abstract
Since Kenya became a multiparty state in 1991, most of the elections have been
proceeded by election violence mostly in form of armed conflict. In addition, election
violence is prone to some Kenyan parts. To understand the dynamics of armed conflict
during the electioneering period, there is a need to understand the interaction between the
time before and after the election and the location of the armed conflict. Furthermore,
there is a need of an empirical approach that describes armed conflict spatial dynamics
during the electioneering period putting into consideration spatial effects, time effects
and also the interaction between time and space for the armed conflict. This study aims
at mapping armed conflict relative risk during the electioneering period of 1997, 2002, 2007,2013
and 2017 general elections held. The electioneering period is
defined as 180 days before and 180 days after the election. Five-time knots, with each
knot at day 180 and day 90 before the election, the election date, day 90 and day 180 after
elections are used. Secondary data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data
(ACLED) is used. A Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) is used to analyze
the point level armed conflict during the electioneering period, where the continuous
Gaussian field is represented as discrete indexed Gaussian Random Markov Field
(GRMF). Integrated Laplace approximation (INLA) is used to estimate the marginal
posterior distribution of the model parameters. In all the electioneering periods of
1997,2002,2007,2013 and 2017 there was a similar pattern of armed conflict relative risk.
The relative risk was low
at day 180 before the election and continuously increased at day 90 with its peak at the
election date. At day 90 after the election, the relative risk is lower than at the election
date and lowest at day 180 after the election. Nyanza, Central Rift Valley, Nairobi and
Mombasa regions are having the highest relative of armed conflict during the
electioneering period. Armed conflict during the election period follows the same pattern
in all electioneering periods, with the relative risk being highest at the period near the
election date and lowest at periods that are far away from the election dates. Also, some
parts of Kenya have a high relative risk of armed conflict in all the electioneering periods.
The study offers insights at spatial dynamics of armed conflict in Kenya during the
electioneering periods which is important for policy formulation aiming at reducing
armed conflict in Kenya.
Description
Paper presented at the 5th Strathmore International Mathematics Conference (SIMC 2019), 12 - 16 August 2019, Strathmore University, Nairobi, Kenya
Keywords
Armed conflict, INLA, SPDE, Electioneering period